Factor of safety and probability of failure in concrete dams
نویسندگان
چکیده
Risk analysis methodologies can be useful tools to help decision-makers in dam safety engineering. One of the inputs needed for Quantitative Risk Analysis is an estimate of the probability of failure of the dam under study. Existing dams have been designed using the factor of safety, which is a concept associated with a certain mathematical model of the physical behavior of the dam. In dam engineering practice it is usual to calculate a factor of safety for a certain failure mode to check the safety of the dam, whereas calculation of the probability of failure associated with such factor of safety is not done. Finding possible relationships between factors of safety and probabilities of failure in dam engineering may be of help for engineers performing risk analysis. In this paper, factors of safety used in several regulatory rules and guidelines of different countries for concrete dams are reviewed and the possibility of deriving relationships between them and probabilities of failure is discussed.
منابع مشابه
Near-fault seismic damage patterns and failure scenarios prediction of concrete gravity dams using nonlinear incremental dynamic analysis
Performance based earthquake engineering approach has been under evolution for seismic safety assessment of structures. Qualitative and quantitative definition of seismic performance levels is major challenge of concrete gravity dams. The main purpose of this article is damage patterns and failure scenarios prediction of structure while they prepare a suitable basement to determine dam seismic ...
متن کاملParametric Evaluation of the Static Stability Analysis of the Asphaltic Concrete Core Rockfill Dams
The present study examined the effect of the geometric parameters of the Rockfill dams on the 2D static analysis of slope stability. In this regard, several numerical models analyzed for eight heights, three slopes of upstream and downstream, three vertical and skewed core thicknesses and four different impounding time stages namely, "End of Construction", "Full Reservoir", "Half Full Reservoir...
متن کاملRELIABILITY–BASED DESIGN OPTIMIZATION OF CONCRETE GRAVITY DAMS USING SUBSET SIMULATION
The paper deals with the reliability–based design optimization (RBDO) of concrete gravity dams subjected to earthquake load using subset simulation. The optimization problem is formulated such that the optimal shape of concrete gravity dam described by a number of variables is found by minimizing the total cost of concrete gravity dam for the given target reliability. In order to achieve this p...
متن کاملDetermination of the Height and Overtopping failure of Reservoir Dams by Using Reliability Analysis (Case Study: Namrood Dam)
Generally, the design of dams and other hydraulic structures is carried out based on deterministic approaches. However, there are many uncertainties in the estimation of different effective parameters in hydraulic structures design. The inherent uncertainties in these parameters necessitate reliability analysis to ensure the structure stability. In this study, after investigating various uncert...
متن کاملPush-over analysis of concrete gravity dams due to flood inflow
This study numerically predicts the failure scenario of a cracked concrete gravity dam through a push-over nonlinear analysis. The mixed-mode Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics (LEFM) was employed using the extended finite element method (XFEM). The dam base was considered to be fully fixed without any foundation effects. The hydrostatic pressure on the dam's upstream face was increased incremen...
متن کامل